Western intelligence services keeping close eye on growing threat of civil war in Belarus

Russia's Rosvgardia trains new elite units in Minsk 

Belarus's powerful deputy interior minister and Commander of the Belarusian Internal Troops Nikolai Karpenkov launched a collaboration with the Russian National Guard in January which is now in full swing.

Belarus intelligence spreads fog of war over defectors and prisoners 

The Belarusian KGB and ministry of the interior have been using real and fake arrests to spread confusion as it takes a more staunchly pro-Russian line. This is accompanied by attempts to infiltrate opposition movements.

KGB keeps @Lebiadok behind bars  Free

On 12 July, a specialist in the Russian and Belarusian military-industrial complex was quietly taken into custody in Minsk. The extension of his detention beyond the 15 days prescribed by law makes it seem likely he will face administrative or criminal prosecution, probably related to his work as an expert.

Sarmat Analytix, a newcomer to the political risk market in the post-Soviet space 

Two Minsk-based veterans of the analysis of political and military dynamics in Eurasia are planning to open a consulting firm in Hong Kong.

Belarus's KGB administers caution on intelligence cooperation with Russia 

The Russian and Belarusian intelligence chiefs met in Moscow on 7 July for what was a routine meeting but not one without its share of tension. Minsk is striving to retain autonomy from its great neighbour to the east.

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The siloviki's three-part plan for Kaliningrad 

As tension between Moscow and the European Union escalates after Vilnius blocked shipments to the Russian exclave, Russian military strategists are weighing their options in terms of diplomacy, economic warfare, and military action.

Dissident militias involved in Ukraine conflict worry Minsk security chiefs 

A group of Belarusian volunteers, Kalinovsky, is defending Ukrainian territory against Russian forces. Together with the Bypol organisation, it is also preparing for a new regime once Alexander Lukashenko is gone, in liaison with the Warsaw diaspora.

Minsk opposition keeps up connections with Moscow 

The Belarusian opposition faction led by Valery Tsepkalo, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's rival, is keeping in with Russian contacts who are ready and willing to back popular and political activism against Lukashenko.