Alexander Lukashenko

Belarus, Russia
Is Belarus about to go to war with Ukraine?

Since the announcement of a partial mobilisation in Russia and the possible transformation of the "special military operation" in Ukraine into an official war, all parties are evaluating the risk of direct involvement of Belarusian troops in the hostilities.

Belarus, Russia
Minsk hopes to stall war effort with ammunition supplies to Russia

Belarus has been supplying large quantities of ammunition and missiles to its fraught neighbour for weeks. It hopes these pledges will allow it to keep its own troops out Russia's war on Ukraine.

The Agencies' Gazette
New public security director in Jordan, Susnjara candidate for DRSD, Kalinovsky Regiment goes political, sex scandal in Copenhagen

Appointments reforms and key issues: every Monday, Intelligence Online reports on developments great and small in the global intelligence community. This week, we bring news from Amman, Paris, Minsk and Copenhagen.

JordanAbdallah II appoints new public security chief to combat drug trafficking.

FrancePhilippe Susnjara favourite to head the DRSD.

Belarus/UkraineKalinovsky Regiment goes political.

DenmarkRevelations about spy chief's sex life threaten Social Democrats

Belarus
Combative opposition homes in on Lukashenko's private security firm Gardservis

As the risk of political unrest in Belarus grows and the war in Ukraine threatens to spill over its southern border, the Belorussian president is cranking up his own personal security, for which he relies on the small private company Gardservis.

Spotlight | Europe, Russia, Ukraine, United States
Under pressure from Kyiv and Washington, Moscow rows hard to keep its industries afloat

Besides their political function, Western sanctions against Moscow have taken on high stakes for security - both for NATO analysts seeking to assess the potential resilience of Russia's strategic industries and for Ukraine, which is keeping a close eye on Russia's emerging alternative trade routes.

Belarus
Infighting tears apart Belarus opposition as Moscow, EU and US watch

Rival factions of the Belarusian opposition in exile have openly descended into infighting, accusing each other of collusion with foreign intelligence or even with the government in Minsk. Meanwhile, armed groups continue to plot the regime's downfall.

Belarus, Hong Kong
Sarmat Analytix, a newcomer to the political risk market in the post-Soviet space

Two Minsk-based veterans of the analysis of political and military dynamics in Eurasia are planning to open a consulting firm in Hong Kong.

Belarus, Russia
Belarus's KGB administers caution on intelligence cooperation with Russia

The Russian and Belarusian intelligence chiefs met in Moscow on 7 July for what was a routine meeting but not one without its share of tension. Minsk is striving to retain autonomy from its great neighbour to the east.

Armenia, Belarus, Central Asia, Russia
Russia pushes for defence focus within Eurasia's block

Despite tensions between the heads of the CSTO, a Eurasian alliance intended to act as a counterweight to NATO, Russia plans to have its member states focus on defence through more concrete action away from political declarations.

Belarus, Ukraine
Dissident militias involved in Ukraine conflict worry Minsk security chiefs

A group of Belarusian volunteers, Kalinovsky, is defending Ukrainian territory against Russian forces. Together with the Bypol organisation, it is also preparing for a new regime once Alexander Lukashenko is gone, in liaison with the Warsaw diaspora.

Spotlight | Belarus, Russia
How Russia is working to absorb Belarusian news networks into sovereign internet

While everyone's focus is on Ukraine, the information space in Belarus continues to quietly but steadily move towards a shared sovereign internet with Russia, one that is controlled by the latter's security and cut off from the rest of the world.

Belarus, Russia
Minsk opposition keeps up connections with Moscow

The Belarusian opposition faction led by Valery Tsepkalo, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's rival, is keeping in with Russian contacts who are ready and willing to back popular and political activism against Lukashenko.