ALL ARTICLES - Belarus

Belarus KGB steps up attacks on dissidents' armed wing

Minsk's intelligence services have launched a barrage of increasingly sophisticated attacks on Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's government in exile, notably targeting her "defence minister", the KGB's bête noire.

Belarusian opposition shaken by infiltration accusations

More powerless than ever against Alexander Lukashenko who has tightened his grip on power following recent events, Belarusian dissidents in exile are facing increasingly detailed accusations of collusion with Minsk intelligence.

Intelligence services in East and West step up surveillance of Belarusian opposition

Following the temporary chaos caused by Wagner's rebellion on 23 and 24 June, the Russian FSB has swiftly reactivated its surveillance networks of the anti-Alexander Lukashenko diaspora, which is also being increasingly monitored by Western services.

Washington and Moscow play smoke and mirrors on nuclear dissuasion

The US Atlantic Fleet's Submarine Squadron 20 went quietly into action in response to the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Kremlin strategists meanwhile plan to deploy strategic nuclear missiles to serve as a deterrent against any attack on their tactical arsenal.

Moscow signals operational purpose for its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus

Western and Ukrainian military intelligence services are scrutinising the deployment of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus, as military escalation in Ukraine continues to unwind. The fragments of information available so far indicates that Moscow is preparing those weapons for offensive, rather than deterrent, use.

Belarusian border guards change chief as crisis brews

Lukashenko has replaced one of his most loyal security lieutenants, Anatoly Lappo, at the head of the State Border Committee as tensions rise at the country's borders. He has been replaced by Konstantin Molostov whose background reflects Minsk's short-term strategic thinking.

Loyal lieutenant Nikolai Karpenkov prepares for post-Lukashenko

Acting on persistent rumours of President Alexander Lukashenko's possible replacement, his faithful security chief and deputy interior minister colonel Karpenkov has been rallying his network of journalists and experts to broadcast messages of support for the leader and preferred succession scenarios.

The Intelligence Gazette
French watchdog seeks greater remit, Ukraine's GUR, intel master's degree changes venue, KGB and FSB cross swords

France
CNCTR wants dibs on sovereignty files

Ukraine
Budanov's deputy moves into the limelight

France
Intel degree moves from Toulon to Saint-Cyr military academy

Russia/Belarus
FSB and KGB bicker at the border

US lobbying giant APCO to help Ukraine-based initiative pushing for Kyiv and Minsk's EU integration

The US lobbying firm has been commissioned by a new Brussels-based NGO, Center for a European Future, to help prepare the ground for Minsk and Kyiv's EU integration. The think-tank is led by an experienced PR professional with strong ties in Ukraine but few contacts in Minsk.

Document
Synesis fights sanctions and informational attacks from Brussels to Warsaw

Bypol, a grouping of anti-Lukashenko law enforcement officers in exile, has intensified its attacks on social media and keeps lobbying in the EU against the Belarusian facial recognition software developer.

Leak spares key figures of Kremlin's Belarus policy

A document leaked by a consortium of journalists has shed light on some of the Russian networks in charge of increasing Moscow's influence in Minsk. But there are also a handful of individuals shaping and reshaping Russia's Belarus policy left unmasked and still working from behind the scenes.

Kyiv counts on Kalinovsky Regiment to prepare for a post-Lukashenko Belarus

The Belarusian armed opposition group Kalinovsky, which has been present in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion, is becoming ever closer to the Kyiv authorities. Ukraine is hoping to tap into the movement to exert greater influence over Minsk's affairs.

Belarusian 'Bellingcat' caught up in opposing disinformation campaigns

Run by exiled journalist and activist Anton Motolko, the @Hajun_BY Telegram channel gathers information about Russian troop and military hardware movements in Belarus. Used by private sector consultants and the Belarusian opposition alike, the channel has also come under attack from Belarusian intelligence services.

Belarusian dissidence forms armed unit under Ukrainian patronage

A section of the opposition to Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko's regime is working with Ukraine's military command to establish a "second international legion". The predominantly Belarusian unit is meant to first fight in Ukraine and later prepare to march on Minsk.

Russia's Rosvgardia trains new elite units in Minsk

Belarus's powerful deputy interior minister and Commander of the Belarusian Internal Troops Nikolai Karpenkov launched a collaboration with the Russian National Guard in January which is now in full swing.

Kyiv and Minsk keep diplomatic and trade ties despite sanctions

Despite the sanctions it has itself imposed on Belarus, Ukraine is continuing to import vital supplies from the country. Contact is being discreetly maintained between the two countries via business networks and even through the presidential office in Kyiv.

Lukashenko takes care to keep Russophile strongman Karpenkov onside

The regime's creation of a commission supposedly to facilitate the return of political exiles to Belarus is intended to send a message both to Washington and to Belarus's siloviki. The measure is largely symbolic, since powerful deputy internal affairs minister Nikolay Karpenkov is opposed to any attempt to appease the country's dissidents.

Strategic disinformation over troops' movements in Belarus intensify on all sides

Belarusian troop movements and declarations from generals from Minsk to Kyiv are sowing confusion over Russia and Ukraine's actual intentions. When read from a certain angle, however, they also offer clues as to their respective strategic positions.

Belarusian opposition's lobbying rubs European Council the wrong way

The lawsuit between Brussels and facial recognition provider Synesis put the anti-Lukashenko organisation Bypol in the hotseat. Ex-Cop Alexander Azarov's already fragile reputation has taken yet another blow.