Belarus, Russia
Is Belarus about to go to war with Ukraine?

Belarus, Russia, Ukraine
Strategic disinformation over troops' movements in Belarus intensify on all sides

Belarusian troop movements and declarations from generals from Minsk to Kyiv are sowing confusion over Russia and Ukraine's actual intentions. When read from a certain angle, however, they also offer clues as to their respective strategic positions.

Belarus, Ukraine
Parallel private diplomacy efforts between Kyiv and Minsk secretly thriving

Kyiv has been backing Minsk in Brussels despite Belarus's involvement with Russia. Thanks largely to the actions of well-connected middlemen in the business community, the war has not frayed the diplomatic ties between the two Eastern European capitals.

Belarus, Russia
Russia ramps up strategic disinformation campaign north of Ukraine

To divert Kyiv's attentions away from the main theatres of war in Ukraine's east and south, Russian intelligence services and private military companies are conducting a growing number of manoeuvres in Belarus. Information about these operations is being carefully 'leaked'.

Russia
Russia diplomacy redraws map

As Moscow grows increasingly isolated from the West, it is turning toward Asia and preparing to transfer large numbers of staff from its European to its Asian department.

Belarus
Belarus intelligence spreads fog of war over defectors and prisoners

The Belarusian KGB and ministry of the interior have been using real and fake arrests to spread confusion as it takes a more staunchly pro-Russian line. This is accompanied by attempts to infiltrate opposition movements.

China, Russia, Ukraine
Beijing intervenes again in response to Moscow's nuclear threat

Discussions within the Russian high command indicate that Moscow is preparing for an operational, rather than political, use of the nuclear threat in Ukraine. Behind the scenes in Beijing, there is support for the Kremlin's aggressive rhetoric, but not for the execution plans.

Belarus, UAE, United States
US lobbyists help Belarusian ex-arms czar keep sanctions at bay

The former owner of arms group BelTech, Vladimir Peftiev, who claims to now be enjoying his retirement, still has a team of top-notch lobbyists in the US working to downplay his politically sensitive activities and protect him from sanctions.

The Intelligence Gazette
Russia's mobilisation, Shin Bet in Dubai, Belloni, Kyiv presses Berlin

Appointments, reforms and key issues: every Monday, Intelligence Online reports on developments great and small in the global intelligence community. This week, we bring news from Dubai, Moscow, Rome and Berlin.

Israel/United Arab EmiratesShin Bet lays down its terms for Dubai airport.

RussiaRussian army also struggling to find instructors for its mobilisation.

Germany/Ukraine New Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin arrives with heavy workload.

ItalyMeloni's government changes skip past Elisabetta Belloni.

Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom
Private diplomats position themselves for mediation roles in Russia-Ukraine war

Private mediation specialists are poised and waiting for Russia and Ukraine to give in to battle fatigue and come to the negotiating table.

The Intelligence Gazette
New public security director in Jordan, Susnjara candidate for DRSD, Kalinovsky Regiment goes political, sex scandal in Copenhagen

Appointments reforms and key issues: every Monday, Intelligence Online reports on developments great and small in the global intelligence community. This week, we bring news from Amman, Paris, Minsk and Copenhagen.

JordanAbdallah II appoints new public security chief to combat drug trafficking.

FrancePhilippe Susnjara favourite to head the DRSD.

Belarus/UkraineKalinovsky Regiment goes political.

DenmarkRevelations about spy chief's sex life threaten Social Democrats

Belarus, Russia
Minsk hopes to stall war effort with ammunition supplies to Russia

Belarus has been supplying large quantities of ammunition and missiles to its fraught neighbour for weeks. It hopes these pledges will allow it to keep its own troops out Russia's war on Ukraine.

Belarus
Combative opposition homes in on Lukashenko's private security firm Gardservis

As the risk of political unrest in Belarus grows and the war in Ukraine threatens to spill over its southern border, the Belorussian president is cranking up his own personal security, for which he relies on the small private company Gardservis.